NZD/USD marches past 0.6100 amid US Dollar pullback, RBNZ, Fed Minutes eyed

  • November 22, 2022
  • NZD/USD picks up bids to consolidate the biggest daily loss in two weeks.
  • New Zealand trade deficit widened in October, Export and Imports increased.
  • Mixed concerns surrounding China, Federal Reserve challenge the pair bears of late.
  • Hawkish hopes from the RBNZ keep buyers hopeful amid a lack of major data/events.

NZD/USD refreshes intraday high around 0.6125 as it pares the biggest daily loss in a fortnight during early Wednesday. In doing so, the Kiwi pair ignores downbeat numbers of New Zealand Trade Balance while taking clues from the US Dollar’s retreat. Also likely to have favored the pair buyers could be the hawkish hopes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) versus the recently mixed comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.

That said, New Zealand Trade Balance flashed -2,129M MoM figures for October versus $-1,353M market forecasts and $-1,696M prior. Further, the Exports increased to $6.14B versus $5.94B prior whereas the Imports rose to $8.27B versus $7.63B prior.

It’s worth noting that the latest survey from Reuters suggests 15 of 23 economists believe the RBNZ will opt for the larger hike, to take the OCR up to 4.25%, with the remaining eight calling for a 50 bps lift. On the same line could be the RBNZWatch Tool suggesting market pricing in a 70% chance of a 75 bps hike, per Reuters.

On the contrary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said in a CNBC interview, “I think we can slow down from 75 at the December meeting.” Previously, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic also turned down the 75 bps move and challenged the DXY bulls.

Alternatively, seven-month high daily coronavirus cases from China renewed supply-crunch fears and underpin the US Dollar’s haven demand. Also, the recently firmer prints of the US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) for October propelled the hawkish bets on the Fed’s next move and favored greenback buyers previously.

Against this backdrop, Wall Street closed in the red and the US Treasury yields recovered before marking mild losses. That said, S&P 500 Futures rise 0.15% intraday near 3,965 whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped one basis point (bp) to 3.81% at the latest.

Moving on, NZD/USD traders should pay attention to the risk catalysts ahead of Wednesday’s RBNZ verdict.

Technical analysis

NZD/USD rebound remains elusive unless crossing the 200-day EMA hurdle, around 0.6205 by the press time.