EURUSD sideways around 1.0350, posts marginal weekly gains

  • November 18, 2022
  • US Dollar spikes and retreats during the American session, moving without clear direction.
  • EURUSD up for the week, far from the top.
  • The 200-day SMA at 1.0415 holds the key to more gains.

The EURUSD fell during the American session to 1.0325 and then rose quickly back to the 1.0350 area, on a calm session across FX markets. The greenback spiked higher amid a deterioration in market sentiment that did not last much.

A quiet Friday

The US Dollar gained momentum during the American session as US stocks trimmed losses and crude oil price tumbled. FX volatility remained limited with prices not far from the previous daily close.

Economic data released on Friday showed Home Sales in the US dropped for the ninth consecutive month in October. The annual rate fell from 4.71M to 4.43M, above the 4.38M of market consensus. The numbers did not impact markets. The DXY is posting modest weekly gains after more signs of a slowdown in inflation and better-than-expected retail sales numbers.

Next week key events include the FOMC minutes on Tuesday. US markets will not open on Thursday due to Thanksgiving Day. November Flash PMIs are due on Wednesday. The European Central Bank will release the minutes of the latest meeting on Thursday.

A not so positive week for EUR

The EURUSD is about to end the week with small gains and far from the top. It peaked at 1.0480 on Tuesday, the highest level since July 1 and the pulled back sharply. Euro’s rally was capped by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (currently at 1.0415) and pulled back to as low as 1.0303.

“The EURUSD pair has lost its long-term bullish strength, but nothing is said and done yet. The weekly chart shows that EURUSD held at the upper end of the previous week’s range while posting a higher high. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains flat at around 1.0030, barely above a critical Fibonacci level, the 61.8% retracement of the November rally at around parity. The 100 SMA crosses below the 200 SMA, both gaining bearish traction far above the current level, not a good sign for Euro bulls”, says Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analysts in the latest report.

Technical levels