EU Commission revises up 2022 Eurozone GDP forecast, sees bigger slowdown in 2023

  • November 11, 2022

In its quarterly publication released on Friday, the European Commission projects Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow 3.2% in 2022, slow down to 0.3% growth in 2023 and accelerate to 1.5% in 2024.

Key takeaways

Forecasts Eurozone unemployment at 6.8% of the workforce in 2022, rising to 7.2% in 2023 and falling again to 7.0% in 2024.

Forecasts Eurozone inflation at 8.5% in 2022, slowing to 6.1% in 2023 and to 2.6% in 2024.

Forecasts Eurozone aggregated budget deficit to fall to 3.5% of GDP in 2022, inch up to 3.7% in 2023 and fall again to 3.3% in 2024.

Forecasts Eurozone aggregated public debt to fall to 93.6% of GDP in 2022, 92.3% in 2023 and 91.4% in 2024.

Forecasts Eurozone quarterly GDP to contract in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, return to growth in Q2 2023.

European Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said, “We are approaching the end of a year in which Russia has cast the dark shadow of war across our continent once again.”

“The EU economy has shown great resilience to the shockwaves this has caused. Yet soaring energy prices and rampant inflation are now taking their toll and we face a very challenging period both socially and economically,” he said.

Market reaction

The quarterly forecasts failed to move the need around the Euro, as EUR/USD continues to hover near 1.0260, up 0.50% on a daily basis.