Dollar still on the backfoot despite a tepid mood

  • November 17, 2022

What you need to take care of on Friday, November 18:

The market mood remained sour, which help the US Dollar to recover some of the ground lost earlier in the week. Nevertheless, the greenback posted uneven and modest advances across the FX board, as speculation the US Federal Reserve will soon pivot weighed more.

Generally speaking, the dismal sentiment could be attributed to renewed concerns related to the Ukraine-Russia war and tensions with Western nations following the latest developments in Polonia. Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said that Ukraine was not to blame for the missile strike that hit a Polish city, killing two people. NATO believes Russia was responsible, despite the missile likely coming from Ukraine’s defence.

Meanwhile, in China, the coronavirus outbreak worsens. The country reports increased cases on a daily basis, although at the same time, the government eased some restrictions for close contacts and travellers. Nevertheless, potential supply-chain issues are back on the table, with all that that means for the global economy.

Stocks in Asia and Europe closed in the red, triggering substantial losses on Wall Street. However, US indexes bounced back ahead of the close and finished the day little changed.

Further support for the greenback came from government bond yields. At the end of the day, the 10-year Treasury note offers 3.76%, while the 2-year one pays 4.46%. The advance is more notorious at the shorter end of the curve, a warning for those betting against the American currency.

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced Thursday she would not seek reelection to her congressional leadership role as the top House Democrat after midterm elections showed Republicans seized control of the House.

EURUSD finished the day in the 1.0360 price zone, recovering again from near the 1.0300 threshold, a sign that bulls are not giving up. EU inflation was downwardly revised from 10.7% to 10.6% in October, still at record highs.

The UK government presented a fiscal plan after the obstreperous failure of former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s mini-budget. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt outlined spending cuts and tax hikes worth £55 billion. “We need fiscal and monetary policy to work together,” he said. “That means the government and the Bank working in lockstep. It means, in particular, giving the world confidence in our ability to pay our debts.” GBPUSD sunk to 1.1762 but recovered roughly 100 pips ahead of the close.

The AUDUSD pair trades around 0.6690, down for the day, while USDCAD hovers around 1.3300. A steep decline in crude oil prices partially weighed on the Loonie, as WTI trades at $82.20 a barrel.

Gold extended its weekly decline and settled at $1,760 a troy ounce.

The crypto scandal related to the FTX collapse keeps spreading like wildfire among exchanges. The market has just seen the tip of the iceberg, although the market remains pretty stable after the initial impact. 

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