Dip buyers must be patient for Powell to have another go at 200DMA – SocGen

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  • November 30, 2022

EUR/USD moves sideways at around 1.0350. The pair could test the 200-Day Moving Average around 1.0380 if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell tones down his hawkish comments, economists at Société Générale report.

Tactics in FX have shifted to selling US Dollar rallies since the middle of October

“Euro bulls may have another go to reclaim the 200 DMA if Powell tones down his hawkish comments of the FOMC press conference four weeks ago.”

“Tactics in FX have shifted to selling Dollar rallies since the middle of October and we suspect pockets of buying on a hawkish reprise of the FOMC press conference four weeks ago could be short-lived and insufficient to steer the Dollar back towards the highs.”

“Eurozone flash inflation for November may surprise to the downside for headline after friendlier numbers for Spain and Germany yesterday and will confirm that the peak is probably behind us. However, the sting could be in the tail with core potentially again disappointing. Be prepared for yesterday’s decline in German 10y real rates to reverse if core CPI bucks the forecast of our economists for a fall to 4.8% YoY.”

See – Eurozone HICP Preview: Forecasts from six major banks, inflation may have not peaked yet